It’s always darkest before the dawn. Carlota Perez pegs what we’re going through economically. Irving Wladawsky-Berger summarizes:
Over the past couple of centuries years, we have had a technology revolution every 40 – 60 years, starting with the Industrial Revolution in 1771. This was followed by the age of steam and coal, iron and railways which started in 1829; steel and heavy engineering (electrical, chemical, civil and naval) starting in 1875; and the age of the automobile in 1908. Our present information technology and telecommunications age, whose starting point Carlota pegs at 1971, is the 5th such major revolution in that span. Each such revolution takes about half a century to spread around the world, and is characterized by two distinct periods: installation and deployment.
I love Carolta’s take on what it will take to make it to the other side of this one:
Ultimately, the length and depth of the global recession (perhaps depression) will depend, not on the financial rescue packages but, to a much greater extent, on whether the wider measures taken are capable of moving the world economy towards a viable investment route with high innovation potential. The technological transformation that occurred during the past few decades has already provided the means for unleashing a sustainable global golden age. The environmental threats offer an explicit directionality for using that creative potential across the globe in a viable manner. The major financial collapse has generated the political conditions to take full advantage of this unparalleled opportunity. It is everybody’s responsibility to make sure this possibility is not missed.
I felt the advent of the economic cataclysm in my gut, not through rigorous intellectual exercise. The world is going to go sideways for years to come and probably won’t settle into a new normal in my lifetime. Not a bad idea to get ready for shaky times.
Now that we’re going to have to pay real money for gasoline and every business process is being second-guessed, business-class air travel is in the cross-hairs. F2F isn’t as vital as we once thought. I figured it would be a good time to get better at virtual (i.e., non-F2F) communications.
Early this year I decided to learn how to create effective video. After polling friends and reading reviews, I bought myself a Canon HF 10 video cam last month. I hired a guy who shoots news and commercials as my tutor. I read several books on shooting video. I tried to get my head around the subject. I converted my downstairs storeroom into Internet Time Studios.
Last Saturday was my first real shoot. I enticed my friend Curt Bonk to sit still for an interview. I just finished editing the video this afternoon. (You will be able to tell that my tutor hasn’t gotten to the lesson on editing yet.) Of course, Murphy’s Law always applies in situations like this. Focus is fuzzy, I forgot to shoot context shots, and I winged it without a plan. The cool part is that I have learned so many things to avoid in the future.
Instructional design and video production have many aspects in common, but that will be the topic of a future post. Curt is delivering an important message; I don’t want to detract from it.