Jay Cross, Managing Director of the Workflow Institute, introduced Trace Urdan with the following comment: “Somehow in the training profession, we tend to look at training as if it is the driver of innovation. It isn't the learning, but rather other trends in the industry that drive innovation.”

Trace then presented his observations on the future direction of corporate training from the perspective of an investment bank: that is, who has money and where are they willing to invest it?

Urdan recalled that in the “old” year 2000 paradigm, investors fueled a $60B market.

This market was segmented into three types of product/service offerings: Companies that specialized in technology, LMS, web conferencing; Companies that specialized in services, consulting, customer content, and; Companies that specialized in content, cbt, simulations, blended learning.

The new paradigm, according to Urdan, is a $6B market. In this market, use of money has shifted to support inside services, excluding the use of vendors. And use of vendors has given way to development of people and systems inside the organization.

Urdan described a likely scenario that will entice investors, involving three new bubbles of influence.

• Enterprise learning software (which includes technology)
• Investors are dubious about this area because implementation is very complicated and broadly touched, its perceived value per user is low, and it will likely become a tool inside of an application. Investors have also seen Oracle and Siebel retreat from development in this area.
• Business Information (which includes content)
• Investors have seen accelerated movement toward BPO. It appears to be a natural outgrowth of knowledge-based competition and mergers and acquisition activity.
• Business Process Outsourcing (which includes services)
• Investors have recognized that some kinds of content are a commodity, for example IT training. The growth of compliance training has fueled interest also. And where information is seen as a competitive tool, a point of distinction, for example executive or CRM training, there is perceived market opportunity.

Trace Urdan summarized his perceptions with the following eight emergent themes he believes will drive Investor interest:

• Corporate training industry has been redefined

• It's the culture stupid
• Follow the money
• Fewer trainers, more important
• No more CLOs
• Consumption, not content is king, usage matters more than data
• It's a CRM world
• Knowledge transfer will be a clearly understood source of competitive advantage.